Kampala (Uganda) – So the Americans went to vote yesterday, after every columnist and his dog had said his two cents worth about the prospects for Democratic Party candidate and world favourite, the “Kenyan-African-American” Senator Barack Obama.
What if we held American-style elections in Uganda? We might have to hold early elections as the US does. Imagine, early voting in Uganda! There’s no doubt what would happen. In all previous elections, we have had constituencies where the turnout was 110 per cent or more— they had more votes than voters. We all know how that comes about.
You can expect that the same thing would happen again. In polling stations near, or in, places like army barracks where, miraculously, support for the NRM and President Museveni is always highest, we can expect a couple of things.
In some of these areas, it is known that in the past some voters voted so many times that their hands became sore. There used to be ridiculous tales of some rogue soldiers voting, getting tired, going home to eat, napping, and returning toward the end of the day after they were refreshed to continue voting. All this in a day.
Imagine then, what would happen if they had two weeks to vote. The boxes would, doubtless, fill up and have to be emptied many times. If you added these votes to the ones on the main Election Day, you would end up with something like 450 per cent turnout!
The only way you would know that there has been over-voting is by counting all the ballots cast first. In 2006, when the turnout in some places were only 115 per cent, by the time President Museveni was declared winner, some votes even in Kampala had not been counted– after more than two days.
So with a turnout of 450 per cent, if you added disputes about whether ballots were good or bad, it would take nearly two months to count. The matter, as has happened in the last two previous elections, would go to the Supreme Court. Because of the mountain of evidence, the court would take two months to hear the opposition case. In the end, it would give up and order a recount of the vote just to make sure that, actually, the ballots represent a 450 per cent turnout.
Naturally the Election Commission wouldn’t have a budget to conduct a recount. So it would take another nine months to find the money, after the donors refuse to fund it. So now we would be well into the second year, and Museveni (or whoever is president) will be in office for this period waiting for the recount.
When the recount finally comes, a bombshell will drop. It will turn out that the original voter registers which had 10 million voters had been replaced by strange ones with 45 million people.
The government case, based on the new mystery voter roll, would be that there was nothing wrong with a turnout of 450 per cent because it represented the number of voters in the country. The opposition will now go back to the Supreme Court, this time to dispute the voter roll.
They would argue that the population of Uganda is 30 million, and assuming that only half are of voting age, the most there can be is 15 million. However, assuming that everyone registered, 45 million would still be 15 million people more than the population.
An exasperated Supreme Court, arguing that it is not a Population Bureau, would order a census. It then takes another 15 months for the Population Secretariat to organise a census. The census finds that, surprise, surprise, there are actually 50 million, not 30 million, Ugandans.
Undeterred, the opposition returns to court to challenge the population census. The court reaches the only sensible verdict: That it is difficult to know exactly how many Ugandans are there, and therefore there is no way of determining whether the register is accurate.
So, no reruns, no recounts and, well, therefore no future elections. And in this way, the man in State House stays, stays, and stays, without being elected until he is escorted out by the gentle hand of nature.
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API/Source.The Monitor (Uganda), by Charles Onyango Obbo – November 5, 2008.