By Juma Kwayera
A few weeks ago, Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta appeared unfit for the docket, especially after the gaping Sh10.7 billion ‘error’ in the Supplementary Budget last month.
Words such as ‘incompetent’ and ‘gaffe-prone’ began to frequently describe the minister, who is also a Deputy Prime Minister. It would not be farfetched to say the public was beginning to think of the need for a change of guard at the Treasury, the third in the Kibaki presidency.
First Kibaki-era Finance Minister David Mwiraria left under the shadow of the multi-billion Anglo Leasing scandal in 2006. The second, now Trade Minister Amos Kimunya, resigned over the Sh2.9 billion Grand (now Laico) Regency saga.
But that was then. On Thursday, Uhuru presented a Sh867 billion Budget, the largest ever in Kenya, and changed all that. The financial estimates have been widely acclaimed. For one, no taxes were raised. What is more? Some duties were abolished and others reduced.
Prior to the Budget, Uhuru had been under pressure to shed the image of a goofing minister following a series of gaffes that brought his competence into question. Last month, he presented to the House a Supplementary Budget that had a Sh10.7 billion error, causing a delay of much-needed funds in Government and State departments. The matter had even raised fears of fraud at Treasury. As a result, the Finance minister had come across as incompetent and pliable.
Uhuru was also finding it difficult to remove the perception that he is President Kibaki’s surrogate and favourite.
In regard to 2012, Uhuru, courtesy of the Budget, has positioned himself not just as a man to watch, but one to watch very keenly. In national and in central Kenya politics, his peers and rivals may have to sharpen their arsenal and reassess their strategies.
The Budget has been touted as one that set the stage for sharing resources equitably with hundreds of millions of shillings sent to the constituencies. For example, each constituency got Sh20 million to build a health centre, Sh10 million to build markets and Sh5 million for drugs, among others. On average, Uhuru may have allocated an additional Sh150 million to each constituency.
MPs’ support
Politically, this keeps him in good stead with MPs and their foot-thumping and attention during the nearly two hours of the Budget Speech are clear indications that he achieved that. The problems that his predecessor, Mr Kimunya, had with MPs are not about to worry the Gatundu South representative.
In the Budget, Uhuru did not forget the marginalised and the vulnerable — pensioners (whose taxable income rose from Sh15,000 a month to Sh25,000) and people with disabilities (who got a Sh200 million fund to borrow interest free, and to whom up to Sh150,000 income a month would be tax free). The youth, women, traders and businesses had something to cheer.
But the issue that has concerned analysts is the political value of the Budget to the Kanu chairman and key PNU politician. It has boosted the minister and propped up his political star that had somehow diminished.
Analysts The Standard on Sunday spoke to agree that Uhuru had acquitted himself well.
Former Kanu MP Billow Kerrow pokes many holes into the Budget and alleges that Uhuru “literary launched his 2012 campaign”. He cites the goodies that went the MPs’ way and the absence of proposals to tax their pay.
“Even as they shuffled out of the chambers after the speech, some MPs were heard singing Kanu Yajenga Nchi (the independent party’s national anthem) clearly elated by the proposals.”
Mr Kerrow has few kind words for the minister. He says it was his maiden speech, “but it was not radical, nor innovative and compelling as expected of a potential president”.
Kerrow, however, acknowledges that Uhuru pulled a few old proposals from the shelves, and cut the image of middle-of-the-road, conformist and please-all Finance minister.
And he concludes: “Uhuru is the average leader, never the astounding nor the baffling one who leaves you agape.”
A confidant of Uhuru, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Finance minister had been treading on slippery political ground and needed to make amends.
Bad press
“To fail after recent bad Press would have amounted to sentencing himself to political obscurity. Failing at Treasury would have been playing to the public perception that he is incompetent and incapable of leading,” he says.
He was reacting to the criticism that the Budget has a populist stunt to hoodwink wananchi into backing him in 2012 if he contests the presidency.
Lawyer Kamotho Waiganjo says Uhuru the man may appear easy to decipher, but his political aspirations are not as clear. He has kept his intentions off public discourse, leaving his backroom support team to preach his gospel subterraneously.
He, however, says a blip of the man was easy to discern after the Sh10.7 billion ‘errors’ saga: “He retreated quickly when he realised he had unwisely taken the high horse and eventually obtained the support of a broad political spectrum when the matter came to the floor of the House.”
Waiganjo also points out that his handling of the Budget, with extensive consultations and ensuring he does not pick a fight with MPs, reveals some political slyness that could earn him well if he seeks higher political office.
But the lawyer has advice for the minister: “His erstwhile predecessors (at Treasury) all started with massive goodwill, but Treasury is an unyielding god that swallows its best children. And an injury acquired at Treasury takes a long time to heal.”
Nominated MP and Ford-Kenya Chairman Musikari Kombo praised Uhuru for a job well done: “The minister has actually overhauled the Constitution. We are no longer going to have an overbearing and intrusive Executive. Pilferage in the use of public resources will be minimised.”
Trade Assistant Minister Omingo Magara said the Budget was designed to achieve two things: Support purchasing power and increase revenue collection.
“Higher taxes do not necessarily result in increased revenue. We had reached saturation point to the extent that consumption of basic necessities had begun to decline as the purchasing power diminished in relation to rising taxes. The minister was alive to this and the Budget is intended to trigger higher circulation of money,” Magara says.
Parliamentary Budget Committee member Martin Ogindo said the philosophy of the Budget centred on tax administration.
“Our major handicap has been prudent tax administration through stringent financial management. What the minister did was to distribute resources regionally to stimulate economic activity at the grassroots. It is a major departure from the past when the Executive’s hand was seen in every decision Treasury made,” says Ogindo, the Rangwe MP.
source.standard.ke