African Press International (API)

"Daily Online News Channel".


Posted by African Press International on August 30, 2007

Last weekend in Kenya the penultimate leg for state-house began with
campaign activities moving to various parts of the Kenya starting with
the coast and Rift Valley. And finally, retired president Daniel Arap
Moi have supported president Kibaki bid for a second term in office.

It is as expected, as going by recent signs in Rift valley and
Honorable Moi’s utterances, it was highly expected that he was likely
to support Kibaki for a second term. Additionally Moi is a very
politically savvy person and his judgment in politics over time has in
most times come correct owing to a variety of reasons including the
scenario prevailing in the country at any given point in time.

In addition Moi loathing of some of the presidential contenders like
Raila Odinga is well known. This is the man who upset his succession
game plan. Raila is an adept political schemer and a consummate
campaigner anybody will ignore at his or her peril.

In addition and it is very correct Moi has been correct over time of
the need of keeping KANU very intact. KANU incidentally is one party
which has remained to cut across most regions in the country albeit
with fewer numbers. Uhuru Kenyatta who ignored Moi advice has finally
awoken to reality of a misstep a bit late, that galvanizing KANU at
this late hour to have a serious shot at the presidency would be
futile. Nonetheless it is a party that can resuscitate itself well if
it adopts an informed strategy. The other party to maintain stability
and likely to win seats in the next parliament is a Democratic Party
of Kenya (DP). It is one of the fall back position for those who would
wish to contest in Kibaki’s party especially in Mt Kenya region, and
the other Kikuyu dominated regions of Nairobi and in Rift-Valley, who
would feel slighted in the nominations which are likely to be skewed
and strangle-held by the currently sitting MP’s.

What is likely to happen? Both Kibaki and Raila Odinga are
presidential contenders to watch. Raila is a consummate campaigner who
can make a good showing in the polls and can play his numerous cards
as is usual with him to his advantage in the polls. Consider also that
he is one person who can unify support around him in the name of
Honorable Ruto, Balala and Musalia Mudavadi knowing all too well that
communities Luhya hardly vote for one particular party. Don’t also
forget that he has a huge following among the youth. Secondly should
Raila support Mudavadi the campaign will also be very hot. Thirdly
even having Raila as the official Leader of the opposition can give
any president a very rough time and sleepless nights which would
easily can force him or her to cut a deal with him.

Finally Kibaki has many advantages going for him. He has the
incumbency to shore up his campaign with all the advantages of being
in power. Secondly his achievements are notable and a large portion of
the population like it. Thirdly he has the support of many fringe
parties and his predecessor who has finally come out to support him.
Fourthly, he has the ‘moneybags’ for his campaigns But he has homework
too. Tribalism in Kenya if taken advantage of can easily and largely
dis-advantage him.

ikunda1.jpgStory by our East African Correspondent,

Harrison Mwirigi Ikunda


Published by Korir, API*APN or+4763002525

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