Mbeki ouster may nudge Mugabe to act quickly on new Cabinet

Mbeki was forced to resign at the weekend, just five months before the end of his term, clearing the way for Jacob Zuma who has openly criticised Mugabe while his main backers in South Africa’s COSATU labour movement have long called for a tougher approach towards the Zimbabwean leader.

Mbeki pulled a foreign policy coup when he successfully mediated a political settlement between Mugabe and his chief political rival, Morgan Tsvangirai, who leads the larger group of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party.

But the deal, which was signed on September 15 amid hope by millions of struggling Zimbabweans, could yet unravel as Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and their negotiators have failed to agree on the allocation of Cabinet ministries.

“Robert Mugabe will be wise to reach a settlement with the MDC because the longer he takes the more he is likely to come under pressure from the new South African leadership,” John Makumbe a University of Zimbabwe senior political science lecturer said.

Makumbe said some leaders in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which appointed Mbeki as mediator, viewed Mbeki as not doing enough to pressure Mugabe to end his political excesses.

The MDC has previously said it had no confidence in Mbeki’s mediation efforts while Mugabe’s ZANU-PF has rallied behind him.

Mugabe has come under pressure from ruling party hawks to try regain lost ground in the talks and is demanding that his ZANU PF party takes control of all key ministries. Under the political agreement, his party is entitled to 15 cabinet posts, Tsvangirai’s MDC 13 and a rebel opposition faction three seats.

MDC officials say Mugabe can take control of defence and state security, now a department in the presidency, but in return would want home affairs, which controls the police and the key finance ministry to re-assure donors it will influence economic policy.

Political analysts said while SADC was likely to keep Mbeki as mediator in Zimbabwe, his standing would now be significantly weakened.

“He is significantly weaker now without the presidency and this will be tested if he is asked to resolve the deadlock over the allocation of ministries,” Eldred Masunungure, a leading political commentator said.

“But I believe Mugabe is noticing that the bells have tolled for Thabo Mbeki and there is no reason why they should not toll for him. He (Mugabe) would be advised to settle for a deal now,” Masunungure said.

Zimbabweans are in the grips of a serious economic crisis, shown by the world’s highest inflation, unemployment and shortages ranging from food, fuel and foreign currency. The political deal had brought hope in the former prosperous country.
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API/Source.ZimOnline (Zimbabwe/UK), by Tafadzwa Mutasa – September 22, 2008.