Publisher: Korir, api africanpress@getmail.no source.nation.ke
Latest deal faces snags as parties harbour mistrust
Story by MACHARIA GAITHO
That it took a last-minute retreat for President Kibaki and Prime Minister-designate Raila Odinga to finally hammer out a deal seems to prove that if the two were left alone, without the influence of aides, they could have easily struck an accord a long time ago.
Indeed, it appears that whenever the two leaders meet in private, they always make a great deal of progress, only for their aides to intrude and throw spanners into the works.
After a stalemate, President Kibaki and Mr Odinga finally broke the deadlock after a retreat to the Sagana State Lodge, where they met without aides and politicians in attendance.
But then if the haggling that nearly derailed the establishment of a grand coalition government is anything to go by, there is danger that the deal finally sealed Sunday might amount to President Kibaki and Mr Odinga merely papering over the cracks.
The stalemate over the past few weeks since the passage of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act has displayed deep-seated mistrust and suspicion between the two parties that are now expected to work together in a co-habitation arrangement.
It is likely that the hostility could be extended into the new government, which might be hamstrung if ministers from both sides focus on using their positions to further their party aims rather than to advance a government agenda.
One issue that could turn out to be particularly tricky in the coming weeks might be uncertainty over the exact powers of the new office of Prime Minister vis-à-vis the presidency.
Other than running a specific ministry, the Prime Minister is entrusted by the agreement with the responsibility of coordinating and supervising the functions and affairs of government.
But exactly what coordination and supervision means could be open to varying interpretations.
Mr Odinga has always pressed for a parliamentary system where the Prime Minister holds executive powers over the day-to-day running of government, making the President merely perform ceremonial functions like the Queen of England or the presidents of countries such as India and Israel.
In ODM’s interpretation, coordination and supervision would include a level of executive power because it suggests all other Cabinet ministers are answerable to the Prime Minister.
But this interpretation could be fiercely countered by PNU. This could lead to a bizarre situation, where ministers from the party resist control and direction from the office of the Prime Minister.
The result would be that instead of the grand coalition being a unity government working as one, it could instead be two governments in one working at cross-purposes.
Hire and fire
What could make things even more difficult is the potential for defiance and insubordination. The President retains the right to make formal appointments, but the agreement strips him of the right to hire and fire.
It states explicitly that ministers from the ODM side nominated directly by the party cannot be removed unless with prior written consent.
Overall, the lack of clear guidelines on exactly how the coalition will function could be a recipe for disaster.
A lot will depend on the willingness of both sides to put political rivalries aside and work in unity, but if the tussling witnessed in advance is any reliable guide, then Kenya could well be saddled with a dysfunctional government.
Everything is, therefore, likely to depend on how President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga view their own roles, how they share responsibility and how they keep their respective troops in line.
From background, style, outlook and philosophy, the President and the Prime Minister seem poles apart, but it is evident that they share some traits.
Unlike some of their ministers, both are pragmatic and personally committed to a settlement of the political crisis that has led to agony among Kenyans instead of prolonging it.
Former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan recognised this in February when he gave up on the mediation effort involving bickering representatives and got President Kibaki and Mr Odinga to sit down face-to-face and strike a deal.
Since then it has always taken direct meeting between the two to iron out differences on the road towards a unity government.
Even when both are determined to make the experiment work, President Kibaki might be more intent on rescuing his legacy and making a dignified exit as he serves his final term.
For Mr Odinga, entering the grand coalition was probably just the first step in a long quest for power.
There can be no doubt that even as he works within a government led by President Kibaki, the new Prime Minister will setting his sights on real control rather than power sharing.
Mr Odinga will be looking towards the 2012 elections, or earlier, when he can finally realise the ultimate ambition.
In the meantime, he will be working hard to make a mark, especially in driving an ambitious reform agenda that would be much wider and bigger in scope than anything the much more conservative President Kibaki would attempt.
Strong party
Mr Odinga will also be keen on strengthening the ODM to ensure it remains a viable and cohesive political movement, unlike President Kibaki, who seems to have little regard for the role of a strong political party.
In Mr Kibaki’s camp, there is bound to be a lot of uncertainty about the future. There are already fears that the President has given away a bit too much, and that combined with the fact that he is serving his final term is likely to lead to a scenario where politicians on his side also start to focus on the future.
That could be manifested in two ways. At one level there will be spirited attempts to contain Mr Odinga and ensure that he does not become too powerful. This could be linked to what might become an increasingly fierce succession war in the Kibaki camp, both in the PNU and also at the level of central Kenya politics.
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