Opinion polls telling the obvious

By Harrison  Mwirigi  Ikunda,

API/APN in Nairobi, Kenya.

Recent opinion polls lead by Steadman plus others just indicate that the crucial presidential race is too close for the prediction of the winner. But it is also very obvious it will be highly contested before and after polling come December 27, 2007.

ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga and incumbent president Mwai Kibaki are the two men between them who will hold the mantle for the destiny of our nation for the next five years. Their support across the nation is enormous and inestimable so to say.

What are their strengths and likely strengths? To start with President Kibaki will be overwhelmingly be voted  in his native Central Province and also have an upper hand in Eastern province due to a large Meru vote plus Embu communities. If he goes full throttle as it is likely he will still get some votes from the Kamba community from the same province.

Raila strength lies from his native Nyanza province and he has a good lead in Rift Valley, Western, and North Eastern. This leaves the unpredictable Nairobi and Coast quite competitive. Rift Valley is quiet populous and it is expected the campaigns there will turn very explosive.

What are the likely strategies? I guess the PNU led by their
presidential contender President Kibaki may be tempted to force or woo some defections amongst parliamentary contenders mainly from Rift Valley. This is to attempt to get a greater muscle to outmaneuver ODM.
Western province which due to a mix of various subtribes almost naturally votes for all parties will be another very hot campaign zone.

Nairobi will be very unpredictable up to the poll. Kalonzo who would have probably given greater impetus to any of the leading contenders is unlikely to change tact or cross over to any of the despite apparent pressure. Kalonzo is likely being strategic and is likely to be  to be keenly strategizing for the next poll whereby he would have gained valuable experience.

It is high probable the presidential contenders may opt to stay away from the trouble-some parliamentary contests which haves been midwifed by very contentious and acrimonious nomination exercise. The race is too tight to have even enough time to worry about the parliament which looks obviously set to be a hung parliamentary for any winning candidate.

The youth will obviously flounder in their parliamentary quest due to lack of experience, money and clear agenda, but the large youthful voters will have a great impetus on the would be occupant of Statehouse. Some foreign powers are highly probable keen to have Kibaki out of Statehouse as do others who loathe Raila. All these will have their hands playing part in the highly charged campaigns up to the voting day and thereafter.

This being a hot campaign due to closeness to victory to two leading presidential candidates plus the push to land to the lucrative parliamentary seats, it  will necessarily yield to evil acts of violence, bribery, vote buying and highly probable some serious electoral malpractices. This is one period in the country history which will greatly divide the nation especially on tribal lines!

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