The survey shows President Kibaki enjoys the unwavering support of the citizens aged above 50 years
Posted by africanpress on October 9, 2007
Story by JEFF OTIENO
ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga is the most popular candidate among the youth while President Kibaki draws much of his support from Kenyans above 50 years.
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| Presidential candidates in this year’s poll: President Kibaki, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka. |
According to three surveys commissioned by the Daily Nation last week, Mr Odinga is still Kenya’s favourite choice for the top seat. All the polls show Mr Odinga extending his lead compared to last week. Two show the President losing marginally, while another has him gaining a percentage point.
Mr Musyoka’s support on the other hand has declined marginally in all the three polls.
The latest opinion polls show a high percentage of the youth between ages 18 to 35 years would vote for Mr Odinga if the General Election was called today.
The survey shows President Kibaki enjoys the unwavering support of the citizens aged above 50 years.
Mr Odinga leads not only among the youth, but also the working population, while President Kibaki tops among pensioners and older citizens. Kenya’s official retirement age is 55 years.
The polls done by three research companies –Infotrack Harris, Consumer Insight and Strategic Research – show that ODM-K flag bearer, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, draws almost constant support across the age groups, albeit polling less numbers than his two rivals.
The leading cause of dissatisfaction in the Kibaki administration, according to one of the opinion polls, is the President’s failure to fight corruption, with 75 per cent of those interviewed by Infotrack expressing their displeasure, followed by inability to tackle insecurity at 60 per cent, unemployment (59 per cent), tribalism (54 per cent) and selective development (45 per cent).
The studies also predict that this year’s election will be highly competitive compared to the 2002 General Election, with 99 per cent of Kenya’s 14.2 million registered voters saying they will cast their ballot on D-Day.
According to Consumer Insight polls, in the 18-24 age bracket, Mr Odinga leads his rivals in popularity ratings by 48 per cent, followed by President Kibaki at 36 per cent and Mr Musyoka coming third at 14 per cent.
In the 25-34 age group Mr Odinga tops by 47 per cent, President Kibaki second at 40 and lastly Mr Musyoka at 13 per cent.
Odinga still leading
The Consumer Insight polls also show that in the 35-44 age group, Mr Odinga’s support stands at 47 per cent, President Kibaki’s at 39 and Mr Musyoka’s at 13.
Mr Odinga still leads in the 45 to 54 age group with 46 per cent, followed by President Kibaki at 43 and Mr Musyoka at 11.
Among the 55 years-plus population, Mr Kibaki turns the tables on his rivals leading by 52 per cent followed by Mr Odinga at 34 and Mr Musyoka (13).
Strategic Research polls shows almost similar results with Mr Odinga leading by 49.3 per cent in the 18-24 age group, followed by President Kibaki at 38.1 and Mr Musyoka 12.4.
In the 25-39 age category the ODM flag bearer leads the pack with 52.3 per cent, President Kibaki (36.9) and Mr Musyoka (10.8).
The poll conducted by Strategic Research says in the 30-34 age category Mr Odinga’s support is at 46.7 per cent, Mr Kibaki 42.6 and Mr Musyoka 10.7. In the 35-39 age category Mr Odinga leads with 46.7 per cent, followed by President Kibaki at 42.6 and Mr Musyoka with 10.7
In the 40-44 age group, ODM’s Odinga heads the list with 51 per cent , followed by President Kibaki at 41.9 and Mr Musyoka at 7.1. In the 45-49 age group, Mr Odinga leads with 51.9 per cent, followed by President Kibaki at 37.4 and lastly Mr Musyoka with 10.7 cent
Those aged between 50 and 54, on the other hand, prefer President Kibaki (49.5), followed by Mr Odinga (35.6) and Mr Musyoka (14.9). President Kibaki also tops the list among Kenyans aged over 60 years with a comfortable 55.7 per cent rating, followed by Mr Odinga (32.9 per cent) and Mr Musyoka (11.4 per cent)
Lastly, the Infotrack poll puts Mr Odinga ahead in the 18-24 years age group by 21 per cent, followed closely by Mr Musyoka at 20, President Kibaki at 15 and the undecided at 32.
Those aged 25 and 34 years prefer Mr Musyoka (24 per cent), followed closely by Mr Odinga at 23 per cent), President Kibaki (16 per cent) and the undecided group at 34 per cent.
Mr Musyoka still leads among those aged between 35 and 44 years at 25 per cent, followed by Mr Odinga (21), President Kibaki (18) and the undecided group (24).
On voting by gender, the Strategic Research polls show that among those voting for President Kibaki 51.7 per cent would be female and 48.3 male, while those casting their ballots for ODM’s Odinga, 50.8 per cent would be male and 49.4 per cent female.
Those preferring ODM-K’s Musyoka as their choice for the country’s most powerful seat, would be 52.9 female and 47.8 male.
The polls done by Consumer Insight show that Mr Odinga would get higher votes than his two rivals among the registered male and female voters. Among the males, ODM’s flag bearer leads by 47 per cent, followed by President Kibaki at 39 and lastly Mr Musyoka at 13.
Among the registered female voters, Mr Odinga would get 44 per cent, closely followed by President Kibaki at 43 and lastly Mr Musyoka at 13.
An analysis according to gender by Infotrack shows that if elections were held today, those who would vote for Mr Odinga would be 57 per cent male and 43 female, while President Kibaki voters would comprise 50.3 per cent male and 49 female.
51 per cent female
Mr Musyoka’s voters on the other hand will be 49 per cent male and 51 female.
In two of the three polls, Mr Odinga’s rating has increased by between two and three points, while one shows that it has remained unchanged in the past two weeks.
Two of the three polls show that President Kibaki’s rating has declined marginally, while one shows that it has been increasing since the launch of the umbrella Party of National Unity (PNU).
An analysis of voting by level of education, done by Strategic Research, shows that Mr Odinga is more popular among those with secondary education (52.7 per cent) followed by those with university education at 51.2 per cent, primary education (46.6), no formal education (41.1) and post-graduate education (11.1).
President Kibaki’s rating is highest among those with post-graduate education at 44.4 per cent, followed closely by those with no formal education at 44.3, primary (42.8), university (37.8) and secondary education (37).
Mr Musyoka, on the other hand is mostly liked by those with post-graduate education (44.4), followed by voters with no formal education (14.6), university education (10.8), primary education (10.6) and lastly secondary education (10.3).
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