While doubts are emerging over the sincerity behind the hand over of ODM,There are already calls that Mudavadi goes for the top seat or nothing, with people like Jirongo threatening to run for presidency if he doesnt.
Since Mudavadi will be selling to them nothing they have never had before, western having been the perennial source of vice-presidents over the past few years, the entry of people like Jirongo is expected to reduce the ODM vote considerably. According to those who talked to the News review, it is better a small bull beaten in the ring than a big one that shies away from engaging.
Trouble for Musalia is that the same reason for his being kicked out in 2002 is still rearing its ugly head. Musalia lot his seat for betraying his constituents by accepting to play second fiddle. They had wanted him to be president. Period. And going by recent utterances and meetings, chances are that they have not changed their mind.
The pro-Mudavadi groups second line of argument postulates that if he cannot be realied upon to deliver Western in a lesser capacity, then he should be given the presidency as a rallying point for the regions vote. Raila Odinga, they say, can easily marshal the Nyanza votes while Ruto delivers the Rift valley.
This arrangement will see Mudavadi as the president and Raila the Prime Minister and head of the government. He will appoint the cabinet and hold instruments of power. Then he can take charge of the reforms he has all along wanted for this country, says commentator who requested anonymity.
But the flaw in this argument comes in light of regional balancing. With the prime Minister and the president coming from the same region, the physical proximity of their constituencies not with standing, other communities will see it as a raw deal, and something the opponents can use against them.
Rutos earlier attempt to project Musalia and Kalonzo as better alternatives to Raila in beating President Kibaki prompted a counter reaction from Raila Odinga that saw him traverse the city calling for an election of the flag bearer. Suggestions that he goes foe the premiers post while either of the Kalonzo-Mudavadi goes for presidency irked Mr Odinga and his community to the core.One thing that did not escape the attention of the cynical was Raila company during that particular entourage.
Save for Fred Gumo, the rest of the speakers were lieutenants drawn from the traditional Luo shouting brigade of Jakoyo Midiwo and Ndolo and others. And the message then was a clear contradiction of what is being floated now.
This elicits some element of suspicion and caution from voters in Western province. Railas insistence on going for nothing less and worse, a position he termed as imaginary is not being taken lightly now that the shoe is on the other foot. Why should Musalia be suggested for an imaginary position of prime Minister?
Rutos controversial beakfast invitation to Kalonzo and Raila Odinga marked the climax of both the fallout and the hypocricy in ODM-Kenya. Claims that the other presidential hopefuls had been informed of the breakfast meeting between the trio only helped to add jitters to the already fragile situation. The proposal floated during that meeting did not factor in candidate Musalia Mudavadi. Another source of suspicion. Mudavadi and Western province are only a fall back when things dont seem to work out.
The involvement of retired President Daniel Toroitich arap Moi in the game plan for 2007 cannot be ignored. With more to lose in a Raila Presidency than a Kibaki led one, observers are quick to note the trademark Moi style of politics in the reconciliation of Biwot and Uhuru Kenyatta, and in the declaration by some Kanu party officials-as key as Madsen Madoka-that they will be supporting president Kibaki, anyway.
The alliance between the labour party of Kenya and Uhuru Kenyatta should be telling a lot. The simmering relations between Uhuru and the Raila-led ODM are meant to assure him of his parliamentary seat while warming up to Kalonzo puts him in the post Kibaki picture. Yet all these are designed to deny Raila Odinga the presidency. With all forces lined up against a Raila presidency, no matter who takes it instead and which is increasingly becoming the point the new found ODM has no option but to go back to the drawing board and probably spring some suprises.
Trouble is that a Raila win, however genuine, may be interpreted to mean and used to confirm that ODM was meant for Raila and everybody else is just a guest and should play ball or else. If LDP turns out to be ODM, then the rest of the aspirants will find it difficult to jostle Raila Odinga from his ambition without jeopardising their positions. And, pundits say, that is where Kalonzo Musyoka will remain relevant long after all the five other presidential contestants in ODM have been eclipsed to the periphery and reduced to cheer leaders.
Posted by Noah
Published by API*APN africanpress@chello.no tel +47 932 99 739 or +47 6300 2525
